THE Philippines will be among the emerging economies that will play a significant part in the global growth in the next few decades, surging 27 places to become the 16th largest economy by 2050, said HSBC.
In its “The World in 2050” report, the bank cited the Philippines and Peru, which will jump 20
places to become the 26th biggest economy during the same period, as joining China in powering global growth over the next four decades.
Its ranking is based on an economy’s current level of development and factors such as current income per capita, rule of law, democracy, education levels and demographic change.
“Plenty of places in the world look set to deliver very strong rates of growth. But they are not in the developed world, which faces both structural and cyclical headwinds. They are in the emerging world,” the bank said.
China is set to displace the United States as the world’s biggest economy by 2050 with strong growth rates in other developing countries seen to drive global growth.
The Philippines, in particular, is poised for a multi-decade run.
“The star performer [in Asia], however, is the Philippines where the combination of strong growth fundamentals and powerful demographics gives rise to an average growth rate of 7 percent for the coming 40 years,” the report read.
The Philippines and Peru, which should have an average annual growth of 5.5 percent in the next four decades, were listed under the 26 fast-growth economies. They are characterized by low level of development but possess sufficiently strong underlying fundamentals.
Developed nations may lose the advantages of “starting from behind” as they become wealthier and technology more sophisticated.
“The initial years of development could be described as ‘copy and paste’ growth, as countries open themselves up and adapt to the world’s existing technologies . . . Once the ‘copy and paste’ growth is complete . . . it is at this point that many economies struggle and get stuck in what is often known as the middle-income trap,” HSBC said.
“But many of the countries we are considering are still at such an extremely low level of development that there are years of this ‘copy and paste’ growth ahead,” it added.
While the West is not getting poorer, its high levels of income per capita and weak demographics will limit growth.
“It is the small-population, ageing economies in Europe that are the big relative losers, seeing the biggest moves down the table,” HSBC said.
In its “The World in 2050” report, the bank cited the Philippines and Peru, which will jump 20
places to become the 26th biggest economy during the same period, as joining China in powering global growth over the next four decades.
Its ranking is based on an economy’s current level of development and factors such as current income per capita, rule of law, democracy, education levels and demographic change.
“Plenty of places in the world look set to deliver very strong rates of growth. But they are not in the developed world, which faces both structural and cyclical headwinds. They are in the emerging world,” the bank said.
China is set to displace the United States as the world’s biggest economy by 2050 with strong growth rates in other developing countries seen to drive global growth.
The Philippines, in particular, is poised for a multi-decade run.
“The star performer [in Asia], however, is the Philippines where the combination of strong growth fundamentals and powerful demographics gives rise to an average growth rate of 7 percent for the coming 40 years,” the report read.
The Philippines and Peru, which should have an average annual growth of 5.5 percent in the next four decades, were listed under the 26 fast-growth economies. They are characterized by low level of development but possess sufficiently strong underlying fundamentals.
Developed nations may lose the advantages of “starting from behind” as they become wealthier and technology more sophisticated.
“The initial years of development could be described as ‘copy and paste’ growth, as countries open themselves up and adapt to the world’s existing technologies . . . Once the ‘copy and paste’ growth is complete . . . it is at this point that many economies struggle and get stuck in what is often known as the middle-income trap,” HSBC said.
“But many of the countries we are considering are still at such an extremely low level of development that there are years of this ‘copy and paste’ growth ahead,” it added.
While the West is not getting poorer, its high levels of income per capita and weak demographics will limit growth.
“It is the small-population, ageing economies in Europe that are the big relative losers, seeing the biggest moves down the table,” HSBC said.
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