WASHINGTON, DC, United States (AP) — The first visit to Myanmar in a half-century by the top US diplomat opens a door for that nation’s military-dominated government to reduce its international isolation and dependence on a staunch but mistrusted ally: China.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton will travel to Myanmar, also known as Burma, on Dec. 1-2, to meet with government and opposition leaders. It is the culmination of a two-year effort to engage with a repressive regime the US had long shunned.
Washington hopes to encourage further democratic reform after Myanmar staged elections last year that ushered in a government of civilians, albeit dominated by a military structure that had directly ruled the country since 1962.
The new government also freed and began high-level talks with Nobel laureate and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
The Obama administration’s diplomatic overtures have a strategic intent, too, seeking to expand US ties in economically vibrant Southeast Asia as a counter to the growing influence of China, which has been an all-weather friend to its southern neighbor Myanmar and its ruling generals.
After a bloody 1988 crackdown on democracy protesters that heralded Myanmar’s descent into pariah status, China has provided diplomatic support, investment, and weaponry, while Western nations have imposed tough economic, trade, and political sanctions.
Despite that backing, Myanmar’s fiercely nationalistic leaders never have wanted to be in thrall to another power and have an ingrained suspicion of China, whose influence they already have sought to balance by building ties with neighbor to the west India.
“Burma has always been uncomfortable with both of those relationships and wants to balance them with others,’’ said Priscilla Clapp, who served as the top US diplomat in the country between 1999 and 2002. “That’s the choice they are making now.’’
She said that many of the older generation of army officers that now hold senior positions in the government cut their military teeth fighting insurgents who once controlled large tracts of the vast country’s north, backed by China under then-ruler Mao Zedong.
While China has long since ended that support, its economic footprint has grown in the past two decades, particularly in the north of the country, through investments and exploitation of natural resources, such as oil, gas, minerals, and timber.
The Chinese influence has bred resentment among the wider population, said Aung Din, a former political prisoner in Myanmar and now executive director of the US Campaign for Burma.
Probably the single most significant decision made by the new government of President Thein Sein has been to suspend work on a massive China-backed hydropower dam in northern Kachin State that would have yielded major revenues from electricity exports.
Thein Sein said the project, which would have flooded an extensive area and disrupted the flow of the nation’s main Irrawaddy River, was against the will of the people. His decision also sent a powerful signal at a time the US was making energetic efforts to engage Thein Sein’s government: Myanmar was not beholden to China.
Myanmar must do more to get what it really wants from Washington: the lifting of sanctions. That would require the approval of Congress, where some quite powerful lawmakers have strong personal interest in restoring democracy to Myanmar. The country will first need to fully reconcile with Suu Kyi, release its political prisoners, and make peace with ethnic insurgents.
In the meantime, the Obama administration can reward progress with significant gestures. Clinton’s visit, the first by a US secretary of state since John Foster Dulles in 1955, is a diplomatic boost to Thein Sein and rewards the tentative reforms he has initiated so far that could yet face resistance from hard-liners in the military establishment.
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