High Five: Computer pollster missing the boat on the Badgers

Taking a look at Week 8’s biggest story lines:

1. Numbers game

Keith Price is flourishing in Washington's offense, with 21 TD passes already this season. (AP Photo)

We begin this week with Jeff Sagarin, noted Trekkie and one of seven BCS computer pollsters.

Sagarin is important because as one of seven BCS computer pollsters, he has power over who plays for the BCS National Championship Game. We’ve been told over and over that strength of schedule is the key to the computer polls because it eliminates bias by rewarding teams playing difficult schedules—and penalizing teams playing easy schedules.

Wisconsin is unbeaten and the No. 4 team in the nation in the AP poll, and as balanced on both sides of the ball as any team in the nation. The Badgers are a legitimate threat to win the national title going into Saturday’s key Big Ten game at Michigan State.

But Wisconsin is No. 6 in the BCS poll, we’ve been told, because the computers don’t like them. So let’s look at Mr. Sagarin: He has the Badgers at No. 6 in his poll, with a strength of schedule rank of 131st out of all Division I teams (FBS and FCS).

In other words, there are 11 FCS schools with tougher schedules than Wisconsin. Yet Sagarin has Wisconsin ranked No. 6 in his poll.

How, you ask? I don’t know—all we’ve been told is that the computers can’t be biased toward a team because it’s a “formula” full of “variations” and “quartiles” and “standard deviations.”

I’d be a lot happier if Mr. Trekkie just said he likes him some Bucky. Because I do, too. 

2. The run of the Irish

Six weeks ago, after seeing players trudging out of the Notre Dame locker room at Michigan Stadium and hearing their crushed voices, I had serious doubts if the Irish could get off the deck.

Now here we are, with ND and coach Brian Kelly staring at bitter rival USC this weekend in South Bend, and I’m not sure the Irish will lose again.

That’s right, 10-2 and playing in the Fiesta Bowl—and everyone complaining that Notre Dame gets preferential treatment. Seems like old times, right?

Notre Dame will beat USC on Saturday because it has the better defense. It’s that simple.

Eventually, the Irish will figure out USC’s passing game and pull away in the second half. Because if we know anything to be true this season (and last), it’s that the biggest difference between the USC glory years of Pete Carroll and now is that the former played terrific defense and the latter can’t stop anyone.

That, and about $300,000 in “loans” from a would-be marketer. But who’s counting? 

3. The Price of fame

If I were to tell you that a Pac-12 quarterback had thrown 21 touchdown passes against just four interceptions and had a passer rating of 177.9, I’m pretty sure a majority of you who have never seen a Pac-12 game this season (admit it, you haven’t) would tell me it’s Andrew Luck.

Well, it’s not Mr. Golden Arm; in fact, it’s not even USC’s Matt Barkley. It’s Washington’s Keith Price, merely the most overlooked player in the nation playing in a conference that—still—can’t get anyone to watch its games.

And what does Price think of his success?

“It’s what I’m paid to do,” he said earlier this week.

Of course he didn’t literally mean paid. He meant, you know, paid—as in paid in scholarship money to study at a university for free while he plays football. He pointed out this much after incredulous reporters thought he was getting, well, paid.

How refreshing: a player who realizes the value of his scholarship, and a player who the nation will finally get to watch in a key Pac-12 North Division game at Stanford and Mr. You Know Who.

So while everyone gushes over Luck and how there’s a nasty rumor floating around the NFL that teams are attempting to “Suck for Luck”—lose games to get the first pick in the NFL draft—take a look at No. 17 on the other sideline. The same player who beat out heralded recruit Nick Montana (yep, son of the father), and the same player who is thriving in coach Steve Sarkisian’s pro style offense like Jake Locker could never dream.

I mean, if you need anything to watch while Luck isn’t on the field. 

4. The real thing

Here’s what I can’t wrap my mind around: if you’re going to chance getting popped, getting suspended and losing games, do you risk it all for synthetic dope?

Don’t you at least take a run at the real stuff?

Imagine the grief LSU’s Tyrann Mathieu, Spencer Ware and Tharold Simon are getting from their friends. Not only have they thrown yet another distraction in the road for LSU to avoid, they’ve embarrassed themselves and their families for fake weed (allegedly).

If it’s only a one-game suspension—Tigers coach Les Miles hasn’t confirmed the number of games—it will be another pothole (no pun intended) avoided by the nation’s best team. Auburn couldn’t score enough to beat LSU on Saturday if they were spotted Jordan Jefferson.

But if it’s multiple games, and LSU is missing its best offensive player (Ware) and best defensive player (Mathieu), the Tigers aren’t winning in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 5—and they’re not winning the SEC or national championships.

Hope it was worth it, fellas. 

5. Extending the future

Boise State keeps throwing money at coach Chris Petersen, and Pete keeps winning. If only life were that simple.

As the Broncos embark on their Mountain West Conference home opener against Air Force, we’re left with this: Enjoy your time in the MWC, Broncos. 

This time next year, Boise State will be rolling through the Big East and Petersen will be racking up these bonuses per his new contract extension: an annual automatic one-year contract extension and a $100,000 raise (if Boise wins eight games; duh!), $175,000 for reaching a BCS game (duh!, part II), and $100,000 for winning a conference title (duh, the trifecta).

And the college football world will still complain that Boise State isn’t worthy of playing for the national championship.

Source: Sporting News